Archive of the former Yahoo!Groups mailing list: MOTM

I think it would be useful in this discussion to define the size of potential markets and the attributes of a successful module offering.

Market Size
Paul posted pertinent ESTIMATES of sales in another forum, which I reproduce here:

MOTM 5U 8,609
Paul's estimates:
.com 5,500
Blacet 4,500
Doepfer 17,000
Modcan 3,500
Cynthia approx 600 Modcan plus 1100 Zeroscillators of all flavors

Paul has mentioned a "rule of 12", which sounds reasonable: the avg customer has 12 modules. Also, Paul has stated that he has sold at least one MOTM module to approx 712 different people. Paul has indicated that sales to early customers drop off for a variety of reasons, so let's estimate the upper bound of the active MOTM market as 500 customers.

Adding up the rest of the world, I get around 2,700 total customers just from the above manufacturers. Paul has separately estimated that total Euro customers alone could be 3,500. I'll estimate that the rest of the world, all formats combined, is very roughly 3,500 active customers: "group B" from my previous e-mail.

Even if all active MOTM customers are "die-hard" members of "group A" that I previously described, they number at most 12% of the total market. (Clearly, even the 500 are not really all that die-hard, as the MOTM-730 sold just 39 units).

Attributes of successful modules
Which brings us to a convenient case study. MOTM-730 vs. Zeroscillator.

MOTM-730: Performs functions similarly performed by other "pulse divider" modules in the market. For many people, not clear how it's going to be useful. Released only in MOTM format.

Zeroscillator: Unique sound generator. Many uses are obvious (VCO, quadrature LFO, FM ala DX7, etc.) Released in many formats. People have an incentive to buy 2 or more, in order to properly do the FM thing.

Despite being hideously expensive, the Zeroscillator sold in huge numbers. So, evidently price is NOT important in this market.

Combining all this information, I think Paul (and customers interested in seeing him in this business for a long time) would be best served by building modules that:

(1) Have multiple obvious, unique and attractive uses for the broad group (A plus B, but mostly B). Sound generators that also produce interesting CV outputs are good examples.
(2) Can be integrated into many different format systems. They'd need to be designed such that they could be repackaged in any panel format, perhaps through "partners" such as Bridechamber, STG and Cynthia.
(3) Provide possibility for repeat sales, either because it might be useful to buy more than one, or because of an "expander" module to add functionality. Or because if you hook them all up together they perform some crazy super function (think two digital fixed filter banks that act like a vocoder when you hook them together with a ribbon cable). Was that a cool idea, or what?
(4) Are priced to recoup R&D and make a profit. The market is not price sensitive for boutique high-quality items.

With the best intentions,
Roger