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The end of the long lead time?

The end of the long lead time?

2010-05-02 by Paul Schreiber

> The problem is that you're wasting your time soldering together
> oscillators and filters instead of engineering new products. I think
> everyone would be much happier if you found someone to do your module
> manufacturing for you, even if they aren't up to your NASA-quality
> soldering skills. I don't think my Minimoog could be launched into space,
> but through-hole soldering doesn't require that much precision. Hell, if
> my dumb monkey-ass soldering can put together your modules, anyone can.
> Get someone to build your modules and spend your time on R&D to release
> new models.
>
> You've shipped more modules than Bob ever did with one to two employees.
> What's wrong with this picture? :)
>

Well for one a moderate MOTM system doesn't cost the same a new car like a
Moog 35 did in 1971.

The only way to get really short lead times is to go SMT *and* to take out
all the front panel wiring. This is what I did for Frac, Euro and the MOTM
650 and '730. I can now build up 1 Euro module (not counting the
calibration, just the building) in 13 minutes. The average time for a MOTM
through-hole module is 2 hours. For the '320 and '480 it's 3 hours.

Had I known in say 2002 what I know today, I would have converted over to
this method YEARS ago. Paul Haneberg essentially talked me out of it and
took over the kits for ~ 18 months but then his stroke ended that
unexpectedly. I then decided to try the MOTM 2.0 route and although it was
slow to take off, it eventually did mostly to Will & Bill's wonderful
dragonflyalley.com site. BrideChamber also help continue the legacy of the
original pc boards. But then 2 major, relatively recent drawbacks happened
in quick succession:

a) I had to change jobs and the new job has a LOT of travel
b) my wire supplier (since Day 1) went tits up *without any warning at all*,
just a "thanks for your business and good luck to you" email the day the
phone was disconnected. Great.....

I am still gathering data and thinking long and hard about everyone's
comments (even if I disagree I still save them all) and trying to decide
what to do (if anything). There is R&D going on "in the background", in fact
I am starting a new DSP design (the mini-AudioEngine) on Monday that can be
used cross-platform for some low-cost, simple DSP functions (including
replacing the MOTM-510 WaveWarper). I plan to use Euro to test & fund the 5U
much the same way I used the CEM chips to fund the 5U when I had them for
sale (I think I'm down to my last 4 ICs or so). Now that I can predict when
my new pot supplier can ship to schedule, I can think about what it would
take to start moving the current through-hole designs over to SMT. I would
still offer blank boards of the through-hole designs, I have PILES of them
(thank you China).

I have to figure out what the cost would be and decide if I could even
recover that cost. One point that was made that I am taking to heart: that
even if I offer a "box full of modules" for say $1500 ready to ship, < 1
week delivery that *unless* I also have a case and power supply with the
modules stuck in there that .com will still get that level of customer
business. Well, as of right now I have no desire to load up the garage with
wood cabinets and all the stuff required to ship them. Then, this begs the
question: why don't you let Roger build your stuff? The answer is easy: he
doesn't want to. Why should he, he has *2* of his own businesses to worry
about before taking me on. And there is no guarantee that the MOTM 5U
business will ever "take off" like it did between 2000-2004 when I was
selling 1200 modules/year. Right now I'm selling about 70 modules/year. See
my dilemma?

Sure, it may boil down to "you'll never know until you try!" but it's an
expensive gamble, and I *don't* like gambles.

Paul S.

Re: [motm] The end of the long lead time?

2010-05-02 by Thomas White

Synthgeeks and musicians thirsting for new tech are impatient. IMHO you now sell 70 modules a year due to simple supply and demand. The demand was there. 1200 modules a year worth. Then supply dried up due to the supplier issues, job changes, shipping difficulty, and I shudder saying it "the backlog". Hands down you gave always had the most interesting modern module ideas for me, but during the move from 4-5 new modules a year to the current 1 per others caught on and moved to miniature Euro and .com.

I sincerely appreciate you for sharing your thoughts and making your situation understandable to us all. Others like Cynthia and Grenader simply disappear. Send it all to China, no wires, have robots build it, whatever. Just please don't throw in the towel anytime soon. As one of your longest running customers I hold out hope for the new stuff with excitement. The delay mentioned that is being developed with Mr.Rich has me most excited. Build it and the CG, MT with no wires. The solution is right there and will help modules move out and money in. Make the boards 1 board for all formats that connect to a pot board per format. The pot board can also have the power connection and jacks. Two pieces to stick together behind the panel and a modular way of going about it. What do you think?

Thomas White
Natural Rhythm Music

On May 1, 2010, at 10:01 PM, "Paul Schreiber" <synth1@...> wrote:

> The problem is that you're wasting your time soldering together
> oscillators and filters instead of engineering new products. I think
> everyone would be much happier if you found someone to do your module
> manufacturing for you, even if they aren't up to your NASA-quality
> soldering skills. I don't think my Minimoog could be launched into space,
> but through-hole soldering doesn't require that much precision. Hell, if
> my dumb monkey-ass soldering can put together your modules, anyone can.
> Get someone to build your modules and spend your time on R&D to release
> new models.
>
> You've shipped more modules than Bob ever did with one to two employees.
> What's wrong with this picture? :)
>

Well for one a moderate MOTM system doesn't cost the same a new car like a
Moog 35 did in 1971.

The only way to get really short lead times is to go SMT *and* to take out
all the front panel wiring. This is what I did for Frac, Euro and the MOTM
650 and '730. I can now build up 1 Euro module (not counting the
calibration, just the building) in 13 minutes. The average time for a MOTM
through-hole module is 2 hours. For the '320 and '480 it's 3 hours.

Had I known in say 2002 what I know today, I would have converted over to
this method YEARS ago. Paul Haneberg essentially talked me out of it and
took over the kits for ~ 18 months but then his stroke ended that
unexpectedly. I then decided to try the MOTM 2.0 route and although it was
slow to take off, it eventually did mostly to Will & Bill's wonderful
dragonflyalley. com site. BrideChamber also help continue the legacy of the
original pc boards. But then 2 major, relatively recent drawbacks happened
in quick succession:

a) I had to change jobs and the new job has a LOT of travel
b) my wire supplier (since Day 1) went tits up *without any warning at all*,
just a "thanks for your business and good luck to you" email the day the
phone was disconnected. Great.....

I am still gathering data and thinking long and hard about everyone's
comments (even if I disagree I still save them all) and trying to decide
what to do (if anything). There is R&D going on "in the background", in fact
I am starting a new DSP design (the mini-AudioEngine) on Monday that can be
used cross-platform for some low-cost, simple DSP functions (including
replacing the MOTM-510 WaveWarper). I plan to use Euro to test & fund the 5U
much the same way I used the CEM chips to fund the 5U when I had them for
sale (I think I'm down to my last 4 ICs or so). Now that I can predict when
my new pot supplier can ship to schedule, I can think about what it would
take to start moving the current through-hole designs over to SMT. I would
still offer blank boards of the through-hole designs, I have PILES of them
(thank you China).

I have to figure out what the cost would be and decide if I could even
recover that cost. One point that was made that I am taking to heart: that
even if I offer a "box full of modules" for say $1500 ready to ship, < 1
week delivery that *unless* I also have a case and power supply with the
modules stuck in there that .com will still get that level of customer
business. Well, as of right now I have no desire to load up the garage with
wood cabinets and all the stuff required to ship them. Then, this begs the
question: why don't you let Roger build your stuff? The answer is easy: he
doesn't want to. Why should he, he has *2* of his own businesses to worry
about before taking me on. And there is no guarantee that the MOTM 5U
business will ever "take off" like it did between 2000-2004 when I was
selling 1200 modules/year. Right now I'm selling about 70 modules/year. See
my dilemma?

Sure, it may boil down to "you'll never know until you try!" but it's an
expensive gamble, and I *don't* like gambles.

Paul S.


Re: [motm] The end of the long lead time?

2010-05-02 by Dave Manley

70 modules/year? Really? And there's still a backlog?

In a previous email you gave a breakdown of different customer types: those with a large number of purchases, and those with only one or two. Have you ever done a poll of the latter group to find out why they were not repeat customers? Find that out, and fix it. The one time buyer is more important to figuring out what's wrong with SynthTech, then the faithful MOTMer. Some of those people were very likely to become repeat customers. Unfortunately, there's no way to recover all the lost customers who thought they'd build a MOTM system, but realized it would never happen in a reasonable time, and moved on to another format.

-Dave

--- On Sat, 5/1/10, Paul Schreiber <synth1@...> wrote:
And there is no guarantee that the MOTM 5U

business will ever "take off" like it did between 2000-2004 when I was
selling 1200 modules/year. Right now I'm selling about 70 modules/year. See
my dilemma?

,_._,___

RE: [motm] Panel thickness change? :-(

2010-05-02 by John L Rice

So Paul, you mentioned over on Muff’s forum:

I am seriously thinking to make all new modules from 0.090 aluminum instead of 0.125. The cost drops quite a bit, the weight really drops (for shipping to me and AND to you!) and it makes the mechanical aspect a lot easier to work with.”

I said basically ‘no way!’ Anyone on the list here want to weigh in on this? ;-)

John L Rice

RE: [motm] The end of the long lead time?

2010-05-02 by Greg James

I'm missing something Paul. What's the big deal about wire? I know I'm
missing something cause I can get wire all over the place.

-Greg

-----Original Message-----
From: motm@yahoogroups.com [mailto:motm@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Paul
Schreiber
Sent: Sunday, May 02, 2010 1:02 AM
To: MOTM List; Jeff Laity
Subject: [motm] The end of the long lead time?

b) my wire supplier (since Day 1) went tits up *without any warning at all*,
just a "thanks for your business and good luck to you" email the day the
phone was disconnected. Great.....

Re: [motm] The end of the long lead time?

2010-05-02 by Paul Schreiber

The one time buyer is more important to figuring out what's wrong with
SynthTech, then the faithful MOTMer. Some of those people were very likely
to become repeat customers. Unfortunately, there's no way to recover all
the lost customers who thought they'd build a MOTM system, but realized it
would never happen in a reasonable time, and moved on to another format.

About 6 years ago, I actually got on the phone and called up *every single*
MOTM customer in the US (there were at this time probably 300 of them). And
I asked people this very same question.

I got probably 100 *different* answers (assuming people were being
truthful). Some of them I remember:

a) a palm tree crashed through my office and destroyed it
b) I got married
c) I got a new baby
d) I got divorced
e) I had to sell it to buy (fill in the blank, usually it was a car or new
house)
f) I have no job now/crappy job (this was the case ~ 2003 after the .com
bust, the market not the synth company)
g) I bought a few kits but they were harder to assemble than I thought
h) I bought some modules but I could never make it sound like (fill in the
blank).
i) I kept waiting for you to have a (blank) but you never did.
j) I like soft synths now, I can get a 100 of them for free! (this is when
they were first appearing)

My #1 favorite call was to a guy that *totally freaked out* on me. The call
went something like this:

Me: Hello, this is Paul Schreiber of Synthesis Tech and I wanted to just
follow up on your modules you bought from me."
Him (about 3 seconds of dead air later): "You're calling me? Why are you
calling me for? Did I give you permission to ever call me?"
Me; "Umm....I'm just seeing how you like your modules and if there is..."
Him: (voice is up 12dB in both volume and pitch): "You are not supposed to
call me! This is outrageous! I can't believe it!"
Me: "I'm sorry to distrurb you, I will make sure that..."
Him: "You know what? I'm want you to immediately refund all my money! This
is like the worse thing anyone has every done to me! I want ALL MY MONEY
RIGHT NOW!!!"

He shipped them back and I sent him about $1800.

The short answer: there was no mitigating factor I could point to and go
AHA! The freaking knobs are the wrong size! or The font is all wrong....son
of a bitch!!!

Now, looking a the last 4 years, I agree 100% that's it's a combination of
my slowness, the MOTM price and the availability of alternative sources.

Question is: is it too late for me? If in Novemeber I have 4 new modules,
100 of each boxed up and on the shelf will it matter to the *new* users, or
am I in the long-tail of my installed base of < 70 active buyers (10% of all
buyers). This is what I am struggling with. The established users are free
to "cherry pick" modules that appeal *only to them* while the
window-shoppers are like Crap that stuff sure is expensive compared to Euro
or .com.

Paul S.

RE: [motm] The end of the long lead time?

2010-05-02 by Greg James

OK - so putting this in a personal context:

I'm in my early 50s. My actuarial life expectancy is something around 72,
so, like 20 years give or take (in my case probably take, but that's another
story). 2 years (what I've been waiting on a number of my orders from 2004
on) equals roughly 10% of my expected life span.

I hope this puts things in a little more perspective. I'm willing to wait
6-9 months for boutique stuff. Maybe even a year with reasonable excuses.
But 2 years? Gimme a break (preferably before I'm dead)!

Re: [motm] The end of the long lead time?

2010-05-02 by Miguel Mendoza

Hi Paul, there can be many strange people around there but me personally would buy a minimum of one typical MOTM module every two months if I could have it with me in let's say one or two months. And I have around 50 MOTM by now. I think that the original idea of Module Of The Month couldn't work with such a lead time. But I think that you are still on time. Please, don't leave us this way

Sent: Sunday, May 02, 2010 7:50 PM
Subject: Re: [motm] The end of the long lead time?

The one time buyer is more important to figuring out what's wrong with
SynthTech, then the faithful MOTMer. Some of those people were very likely
to become repeat customers. Unfortunately, there's no way to recover all
the lost customers who thought they'd build a MOTM system, but realized it
would never happen in a reasonable time, and moved on to another format.

About 6 years ago, I actually got on the phone and called up *every single*
MOTM customer in the US (there were at this time probably 300 of them). And
I asked people this very same question.

I got probably 100 *different* answers (assuming people were being
truthful). Some of them I remember:

a) a palm tree crashed through my office and destroyed it
b) I got married
c) I got a new baby
d) I got divorced
e) I had to sell it to buy (fill in the blank, usually it was a car or new
house)
f) I have no job now/crappy job (this was the case ~ 2003 after the .com
bust, the market not the synth company)
g) I bought a few kits but they were harder to assemble than I thought
h) I bought some modules but I could never make it sound like (fill in the
blank).
i) I kept waiting for you to have a (blank) but you never did.
j) I like soft synths now, I can get a 100 of them for free! (this is when
they were first appearing)

My #1 favorite call was to a guy that *totally freaked out* on me. The call
went something like this:

Me: Hello, this is Paul Schreiber of Synthesis Tech and I wanted to just
follow up on your modules you bought from me."
Him (about 3 seconds of dead air later): "You're calling me? Why are you
calling me for? Did I give you permission to ever call me?"
Me; "Umm....I'm just seeing how you like your modules and if there is..."
Him: (voice is up 12dB in both volume and pitch): "You are not supposed to
call me! This is outrageous! I can't believe it!"
Me: "I'm sorry to distrurb you, I will make sure that..."
Him: "You know what? I'm want you to immediately refund all my money! This
is like the worse thing anyone has every done to me! I want ALL MY MONEY
RIGHT NOW!!!"

He shipped them back and I sent him about $1800.

The short answer: there was no mitigating factor I could point to and go
AHA! The freaking knobs are the wrong size! or The font is all wrong....son
of a bitch!!!

Now, looking a the last 4 years, I agree 100% that's it's a combination of
my slowness, the MOTM price and the availability of alternative sources.

Question is: is it too late for me? If in Novemeber I have 4 new modules,
100 of each boxed up and on the shelf will it matter to the *new* users, or
am I in the long-tail of my installed base of < 70 active buyers (10% of all
buyers). This is what I am struggling with. The established users are free
to "cherry pick" modules that appeal *only to them* while the
window-shoppers are like Crap that stuff sure is expensive compared to Euro
or .com.

Paul S.

Re: [motm] Panel thickness change? :-(

2010-05-02 by Scott K Warren

No way!!

Sent from my iPad

On May 2, 2010, at 12:28 PM, "John L Rice" <Drummer@...> wrote:

So Paul, you mentioned over on Muff’s forum:

I am seriously thinking to make all new modules from 0.090 aluminum instead of 0.125. The cost drops quite a bit, the weight really drops (for shipping to me and AND to you!) and it makes the mechanical aspect a lot easier to work with.”

I said basically ‘no way!’ Anyone on the list here want to weigh in on this? ;-)

John L Rice

Re: [motm] Panel thickness change? :-(

2010-05-02 by Andre Majorel

On 2010-05-02 10:28 -0700, John L Rice wrote:
> So Paul, you mentioned over on Muff???s forum:
>
> > I am seriously thinking to make all new modules from 0.090
> > aluminum instead of 0.125. The cost drops quite a bit, the
> > weight really drops (for shipping to me and AND to you!) and it
> > makes the mechanical aspect a lot easier to work with.
>
> I said basically "no way! Anyone on the list here want to weigh
> in on this? ;-)

2.3 mm sounds a bit thin for 5U. Then again, it depends on the
alloy. Some are fairly stiff.

The only way to know for sure is to cut a piece of 1U x 5U of
whatever alloy Paul uses, drill holes for jacks and see how much
it flexes on insertion/removal.

--
André Majorel http://www.teaser.fr/~amajorel/

Re: [motm] The end of the long lead time?

2010-05-02 by Jim Black

How is the Euro module business progressing? Will it provide the necessary funding for R&D and continuation of the 5u?


--- On Sun, 5/2/10, Paul Schreiber <synth1@...> wrote:

I can now build up 1 Euro module (not counting the
calibration, just the building) in 13 minutes.


Re: [motm] Panel thickness change? :-(

2010-05-05 by George Kisslak

please NO!

George

John L Rice wrote:
>
>
> So Paul, you mentioned over on Muff’s forum:
>
> “I am seriously thinking to make all new modules from 0.090 aluminum
> instead of 0.125. The cost drops quite a bit, the weight really drops
> (for shipping to me and AND to you!) and it makes the mechanical aspect
> a lot easier to work with.”
>
>
>
> I said basically ‘no way!’ Anyone on the list here want to weigh in on
> this? ;-)
>
>
>
> John L Rice
>
>
>
>

Re: [motm] The end of the long lead time?

2010-05-05 by Argitoth

Guys, sorry, I think this is all my fault. Everytime I make an order from Paul I'm like... WAIT! I need to change something... *beep boop beep* ok that's good. WAIT!!! Hold on, I need to *beep boop bip bip* ok that's... WWAIT WAIT WAIT!!! Ok, just let me start over.. WAAIT A SEC!!!!!!!!!!!

sorry, and then every time I build a module I send it to Paul with note "Can you fix this and calibrate it and change the wires and add heat shrink and replace that one capacitor and can you send me back a pie with that, oh and maybe a few extra BTI pots." Sorry guys, I really shouldn't be a customer... can't help it though. I like MOTM.

On Sun, May 2, 2010 at 3:17 PM, Jim Black <black_man_music@...> wrote:

How is the Euro module business progressing? Will it provide the necessary funding for R&D and continuation of the 5u?


--- On Sun, 5/2/10, Paul Schreiber <synth1@...> wrote:

I can now build up 1 Euro module (not counting the
calibration, just the building) in 13 minutes.





--
www.elanhickler.com