[sdiy] Chip prices today and what about tomorrow?

[Paul Schreiber]

As the person on the list that probably buys more "stuff" than anyone else 
(about $110K/yr), a few observations:

a) the best way to get the lowest prices is to get a 'direct account' (30 day 
terms, not credit card) with distribution: Newark, Arrow, NuHorizons, Future 
and/or Avnet.

b) brokers mainly sell to 1 market: REPAIR and mostly MILITARY REPAIR. Price is 
NOT an issue. In the last 8 years, I have bought parts from brokers 3 times 
(non-CEM) and that was painfully expensive.

c) Looking forward: buy stuff in SMT. The analog ICs and 74HCxxx are all 0.050 
pitch, easy to solder. 1206 resistors are easy to handle and solder. You can fit 
your entire parts collection in a shoebox :) You can get really slick SMT 
prototype adapters at www.beldynsys.com and cheap, professional prototype boards 
(up to 10" x 10", you can put an entire Mogg 55 on that!) at www.4pcb.com .

I personally think that after July 1 2006, the US holders of DIP ICs are going 
to dump 95% of them in the trash. In Europe, that will be Jan 1. There is going 
to be a HUGE upswing as the paradigm shifts from repair/maintain to *replace*. 
Think of it this way: EVERYTHING you can purchase today at Best Buy will be in a 
landfill 4 years from now. Electronics has been devalued over the last 5 years 
like no other commodity (120GB hard drives: Dell pays $10.48 for them). Remember 
the 70s/80s/90s when electronics was sort of cool and mysterious and 'rocket 
science'? Now I have these conversations:

Me: 'That iPod Nano sure looks slick!'

Neighbor: 'It does....how many songs will it hold?'

Me: '1000'

Neighbor: ' Nah....I'll never need that many. Guess I won't buy it."

In other words, the *technology is no longer of value*. The value is more or 
less *assumed*, and now it's more based on *need*. And most electronic things we 
really don't *need*. The public is now desensitized except possibly large plasma 
TV that are "too expensive" at the same price point that I bought a NEC 
MultiSync II monitor for in 1988. The technology in cell phones should really be 
valued at $1200 (DSPs/RF/cameras/software/packaging and mechanical content)

The point is: DIP ICs with lead are a "double whammy". How many DIP ICs with 
lead will be in new products this time next year? Virtually NONE.

So either get 'em while the gettins' good (as Granny like to say) or shift over 
to SMT, which is NOT that bad, really. I suppose it requires a CAD system of 
sorts. Save your $$$, sell some gear, get the CAD and never look back. There is 
no dishonor in soldering to a nice pc board rather than perf board (sorry JH!).

Paul S.
last perf board used was 2001