Archival Electronics

[Grant Richter]

I have been thinking recently about the longevity
of electronic musical instruments. It's kind of a 
silly thread I realize, but something I have been
musing over. I took the term "Archival Electronics"
from archival photography which is a set of
practices designed to produce photographs of
the greatest longevity.

Since there are acoustic musical instruments
in use that are several hundred years old
(harpsichords for instance), it seems that
analog synthesizers may still be in use
for a similar time period if they continue to
function.

This is based on a lot of assumptions:

First is that people will continue to want to
play and listen to music (I hope so).

Second is that musicians will continue to be
willing to carry or play something bigger than
a palmtop computer.

Third is that artists will continue to feel that
specific instruments have distinctive enough
characteristics that they can not be replaced
by a surrogate. (the advent of the synthesizer
did not render acoustic instruments "obsolete"
for example).

With that in mind, would the analog synthesizer
be a candidate for such longevity?

For example, is the theoretical mean time between failure
(MTBF) of a synthesizer module containing 400 transistors
(in a number of op-amps) greater or less than the MTBF
of a DSP chip containing 4 million transistors?
And what about the issue of long term repair parts?
Which will be easier to find in 2100 AD a SHARC DSP,
a TL074 or a 12AU7?